Yesterday on The Rangers Tribune we took an in-depth look at three key match-ups that will decide the New York Rangers versus Ottawa Senators Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series. Today, as we near closer to Game One on Thursday, it is time to look at the series from a broader angle rather than just a few instrumental points. And obviously, with this being a Rangers blog and all, I’ll do so from a Blueshirts point-of-view.
The most vital advantage the Rangers have in this series that they cannot afford to let go to waste is their home ice advantage. In recent years it has always been about preparing to win on the road and getting ready to endure the momentum swings that will surely benefit the opposition in front of their home crowd. But, having clinched the top spot in the East, the Rangers will have the luxury of playing four out of seven games (if necessary) at Madison Square Garden.
New York now immediately has a chance to gain an early go-ahead on the Senators if they can find ways to win both of their first two home games. The team has been in New York since last weekend, they’ve had days to rest and days to practice, and now they simply need to travel to Manhattan for the first two games of the series. Fatigue may have been a factor for this club later in the season, but they are definitely well rested by this point, having spent so much time home in the Big Apple for the past few weeks, especially this past one.
You don’t think about the benefits that go along with having home ice until you actually have it, and we are really seeing the early advantage the Rangers have over the Senators and the series has yet to begin. The rested Rangers now must bring all of their pent-up energy and excitement into these next two games and jump out to a quick 2-0 series lead. If they can do so, then I truly believe that this series will be over in five games.
Beyond just the home ice, there are some technicalities to go through that the Rangers must be on top of against a dangerous Senators team as well. Henrik Lundqvist is not a concern whatsoever in goal, so there’s no need to analyze there. The defense in front of him, however, will have quite the checklist from the coaching staff going into the playoffs, specifically in this series.
It all begins with positioning on defense, and for some reason the Rangers built up a tendency to allow the opposition to roam freely around the net in the last month or so of the regular season. This is a huge no-no, because while Henrik Lundqvist may not seem human at times, he cannot do much about deflections and rebounds when his defense is not giving him the proper assistance.
Execution in the positioning department will then put the Rangers at a higher chance of blocking more shots, which is something they’ve become noted for. Head coach John Tortorella has nearly everyone on the roster out there blocking shots, and with the Sens being a team that gets offense from their defensemen, this will be key. Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh, Ryan Callahan and Brandon Prust are just a few, but the list goes on and on when it comes to laying down the body in front of the rubber.
The Rangers also must be smarter with the puck in the neutral zone, whether it be a forward or a defenseman leading the play. The Senators have one of the quicker defense to offense transitions in the game, so if you turn the puck over between the blue-lines, they will undoubtedly burn you time and time again. New York can be carless at times there, so it’s crucial that they make low-risk passes or simply dump in or carry in. Against some other teams, fine, go for the riskier play, but not against the Sens.
On the flip side of that, I’m sure the coaching staff has the squad prepared for what Sens defenseman Erik Karlsson is going to bring. Karlsson thrives in the neutral zone if the space is there, but if the Rangers can cut off his skating and passing lanes, he’s going to run into problems. This is where scouting and exploiting tendencies comes into play. Karlsson’s not perfect, so the Rangers can find ways to give him hell in this series. If they do that, they’ll be giving the Senators hell as a whole, because as I said yesterday, Karlsson is the motor that makes that ship run.
On offense, it seems obvious that time of possession will be key. Depending on the opponent, however, time of possession can have a variety of effects. When going up against the Sens, time of possession for the Rangers will see them with more opportunities coming as a result of Ottawa error. There are weaknesses to be exposed on the Senators’ back-end, and in my opinion, the Rangers are the much better forechecking and grinding team in this series.
Last, but not least, discipline and penalty killing are going to play an immense role in this match-up. Ottawa’s powerplay functioned at a 18.2 percent success rate during the regular season, which was good for eleventh best in the League. The Rangers will not want to give that Sens powerplay any opportunities, but let’s face the facts – they are going to take penalties at some point. The Rangers were top five on the penalty-kill throughout the season, and they’ll need to continue their excellence throughout the playoffs. This, again, starts with isolating Erik Karlsson.
Plus, assuming the Rangers cannot rely too much on their powerplay to have success based on what we saw in the regular season, it’s crucial that their penalty-kill makes up for the ground lost when they have the man advantage. The importance of special teams is always amplified in the postseason, especially in a series that should be tightly played like this one.
All in all, if the Rangers can stay within these listed guidelines, they shouldn’t have much of a problem handling the Senators in this series. As Tortorella always says, it comes down to dealing with momentum swings and making the big plays in the big moments. The slightest of mistakes can and will cost you in the playoffs, so the fewer the better.
Now I promised you all a prediction, so here are my thoughts: If the Rangers can win their first two home games, they will take this series in five games, six games the most. If they struggle on home ice, they are going to run into early trouble and be more vulnerable for an upset in a back-and-forth series. They don’t want to be put in that position.
Comments